Jean-Pierre Dupuy: The Myopia of Experts

professional

The inherent myopia of expertise makes it liable from time to time to tragically stupid errors of judgment. One thinks of credit-rating agencies in particular. By making public their evaluation of a bank’s or a country’s present position, they give the future no other choice than to raise the bidding on past tendencies. The power and influence conferred by recent legislation on a handful of experts who have already more than once displayed their incompetence have created a situation in which an unfavorable rating plunges the bank or country in question into a downward spiral from which it will have the greatest trouble extricating itself. … Under pretense of objectivity and neutrality, the rating agencies behave like apprentice sorcerers. Even when the future seems to confirm their pessimism, because publicizing a rating downgrade causes it to be justified by events, they maintain that they have simply judged the situation correctly and that their opinion had no effect on the final outcome. This is the stupidity of expertise.

– Jean-Pierre Dupuy,  (2014-10-01). Economy and the Future: A Crisis of Faith

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